Thursday, November 13, 2008

Intel INTC stock bottom? - strong U TURN buy signal

Market did not like Intel (stock INTC) yesterday after their earnings. It was trading lower in the aftermarket. This caused the Intel stock, and the market, to trade lower today. However surprisingly, Intel closed strong today. This is a text-book style U TURN buy signal in Intel stock.
Is today's low the bottom for INTC stock? Only future will tell but being a trader we can not wait that long... so IMO intel stock has formed a bottom today.

Intel can be traded with a stoploss at today's low.

Another powerful reversal signal in market today

Another powerful reversal signal for Dow Jones Industrial Average around 8000 level.
This is sort of double bottom- market rebounding after testing psychological level of 8000 for DJIA.

The volume was also very nice. Similar signals can be seen in Intel, Cisco, apple etc. (INTC- Intel as such has a strong U TURN signal- bad news- lower open but the stock managed to close strong.

Keep a stoploss at today's low prices.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Which is one of the best sectors right now?

IMO it is Airlines if you are looking for one good sector in this tremendously bad economy and markets.
* All airlines have added so many surcharges lated when Oil and jet fuel prices skyrocketed!
So now they are charging for every small thing you need while travelling LOL
* Jet Fuel prices are dropping like a rock. See the chart below. They have comedown by 50%! From $5 per gallon to $2.5 per gallon (Chart: courtsey of IATA website)

* Fuel charges are around 33% of costs for an airline. From the peak, they have come down so that is like 17% improved in costs from the worst days!

Do you know any other sector?

Market Reversal: Where is the bottom?

Where markets are heading? This is a million dollar question. To answer this question can by politically suicidal (and probably financially too).
I think bottom is formed on last Friday when Dow Jones hit below 7900 momenatarily.

* Last Friday, there was a REVERSE signal on very high volume for most stocks.
* Today, right at this moment, Dow Jones has come to positive line after dropping around 400 points. We don't know where it is going to close today but if it does close above today's Open, we will have a CONFIRMMING second reversal signal
* that will also confirm a higher bottom.
* One of the strongest signals for the end of the downtrend- I was in a team lunch yesterday when the dow was dropping around 700. Someone asked me if I was in the market. I said Yes and almost all faced showed pity for me! It is considered stupid to be in market right now... so probably most of the individuals (who by now have figured out it is stupid to be invested in market these days) are all out of the market! What does that mean? There are not many sellers in the market left now (weak hands I mean). When stocks are selling high (expensive), it is fashion to be invested and when there is a sale going on, people are abondoning..

Anyway, for today's post, if someone is to invest,
*make sure the stock or the market closes above today's Open (better if it close above Yesterday's Close)
* keep a stoploss at today's low.



Monday, October 6, 2008

Apple has a strong reversal

Update -Oct 16, 2008--
Look at the recent BUY signals in AAPL- in blue in the chart. (There was on Sell signal too when it opened up in Gap at 116 and closed lower- as shown in Red)
Also compare AAPL to Dow Jones and you will see Selective buying going on in this stock.

Dow broke below 10k today! What a scare out there!! At one point, the Dow was down by around 750 points.
APPLE (stock: AAPL) showed a nice reversal today (Yes, I was wrong earlier on AAPL when a similar signal failed. PFP signals do fail, like everything else in the market and that is the reason we always keep a stoploss)

Apple computer stock AAPL opened in a down Gap at $92 and then went down to $87 but toward close, it was around $98. Volume was also very strong. This gives us a trading opportunity to buy Apple with a stoploss at today's Low price



Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The World After Bailout- How to Profit from it

(This is an article in process. Not done yet but I am publishing it as work-in-progress to get some feedback, ideas from you too.)

Will Bailout pass or not?
Looks like on this Sunday, the answer was mostly Yes. Then on Monday, it became a NO as Congress voted against it. Today as Senate is a about to vote, it looks like a probable Yes. However what will happen when it is voted in Congress tomorrow (Thursday)? This uncertainty about bailout program has made US markets the most dramatic in recent history. Down 778 points on Monday and then up 500 points on Tuesday. Today, the recovered from a 200 point drop in DJI. Looks like what an investor makes in an year can be made by Day-traders and short-term traders in hours this week! Currently we are all focused very short term- will this Bill pass or not. I think it will pass in one form or another.
The important thing in my opinion is now for us to wake up, free ourselves from short-term uncertainty and to start thinking about ways to figure out if we can profit from it. Is there a way to take a bit (I guess a micro-bite LOL) of this 700 billion bail-out monster? Not sure but this has already reached a trillion dollars if FNM, FRE and AIG are included. Remember, money never vanishes- it just changes pockets. So I am trying to see if I can route some of the money into my pockets.

Current State of the Markets
Assuming the Bailout bill will pass, let us think about the world down the road- in an year or over next few years.
* I don't believe the liquidity in the economy has vanished. Money is still there; it is the lack of confidence that is killing the credit available.
* Current inventory of unsold homes- around 4.8 millions. National Median home price is 225k. Assuming 50k of loss per home (to accomodate higher priced markets like California) to a mortgage lender-- the total loss to lenders for currently unsold homes is around 200 billions. Spread it across two years- maybe it is 500 billions but the Bailout is running into a Trillion and banks have already written down 250 billions or so over last few months... There is some money left between what is happening and what is estimated

The World (and Markets) after the Bailout.

* Mark to Market losses-- are paper losses. The market for the problem securities is thinly traded- prices may not be fair representative of reality. Anyway currently write-offs are happening but don't get surprised if mark-to-market bring profits in an year or two.
* Markets always deviate too much from fair-value line. In bull market, they go up too much from reality and in bear, they go down too much too. This always gives nice opportunities to smart investors to buy cheap and sell expensive.
* Government Bailout- Government keeps current problems- 'bad' securities- will revive confidence among players. This should revive the trading in MBS and their derivatives. Once this market revives, bargain hunting should start in this troubled securities.
* Chase, Citi, BofA--- they are acquiring new customers/business in fire sells by other institutions. Their customer/business acquisition costs are rediculously low. On long-term models they will benefit from two folds- increased customer base and also from less competition in the market.
* Goldmon Sacks, ... Investment bankers and Wall-street big dogs who survive this tough time will benefit down the road from reduced competition.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

SIRIUS XM RADIO INC (SIRI)-- bottoming out?

SIRIUS XM RADIO INC(NasdaqGS: SIRI)
one of the best "Reverse buy" signals. Stoploss at today's low price.



Sirius XM Radio, Inc. provides satellite radio services in the United States. It offers commercial-free music channels that provide a selection of music genres, such as rock, pop, hip-hop, country, dance, jazz, Latin, and classical; and channels of sports, news, talk, entertainment, traffic, weather, and data content. As of March 31, 2008, the company offered a programming lineup of 69 channels of commercial-free music; 54 channels of sports, news, talk, and entertainment; and 11 channels of traffic and weather, as well as informational data services. It served approximately 8,644,319 subscribers. In addition, the company sells radios and accessories for use in cars, trucks, homes, offices, boats, or other locations primarily through automakers, consumer electronics retailers, and mobile audio dealers, as well as through its Web site. Further, it provides SIRIUS Internet Radio, an Internet-only version of its service. The company, formerly known as Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc., was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Some stocks to buy today AAPL, XLK, GOOG, WLP, SAP, MEDX

XLK: 1st time, the signal failed. But within 3 days, here is second strong reversal signal, and that too with high volume.

For stock price watchers, today is a significant day. Most stocks and indexes opened very weak (no surprise looking at the negative sentiment these days) but during the market session, they have shown a nice rebound and close above previous day's High prices. Volume was also very nice.
To me this shows that there was nice buying by informed sources. Dollar is strong, Oil is dropping, stock prices are attractive, Mortgage rates have dropped significantly. So if you put aside the FNM, FRE story, looks like some circles are taking this opportunity to get into market. There is no inside information I am talking about here. This is what prices are telling me today.

Look at the chart of Google. It is a nice U TURN (Buy) signal.


XLK- select spider- U TURN with nice jump in volume

APPL, Apple, same story: Nice reversal today.


so keep an eye on today's reversals with stoploss at today's low price.

Some other stocks showing rebound are SBUX, Airline stocks, LULU, SAP, MSFT, YHOO, WLP, MEDX...


DIA- SPY- major ETFs are showing a complete Trend Reversal today

On Sep 5th we had a REVERSE buy signal. That lows are not broken and today we have our favorite U TURN Buy signal. The market opened lower but it managed to close strong.
This just shows that despite negative sentiment, there was very good bottom fishing/purchasing in the market.
So IMO it is time to ride the market with stop loss at Sep 5th Lows.


DIA- SPY- major ETFs are showing a complete Trend Reversal today

Friday, September 5, 2008

Is Dow Jones a good buy? (NYSE: DIA, SPY)

Is Dow Jones and S&P a good buy? These are market indicators. If they are telling something, it is a likely trend reversal from prices as of this moment.

Today there is a nice reversal taking place right at this moment (Sep 5, 2008). This is a RESTART Buy signal so long positions can be taken with stoploss at today low price.





Is Dow Jones a good buy? Today there is a nice reversal taking place right at this moment (Sep 5, 2008). This is a RESTART Buy signal so long positions can be taken with stoploss at today low price.

Monday, August 25, 2008

CHINA CDC Corp (NASD: CHINA) Is it reversing?

CHINA CDC Corp (NASD: CHINA) Is it reversing?

Today I find a JUMP START (Profit From Prices) trend reversal signal in CHINA. Can be traded with stoploss at previous day's closing price.


CDC Corporation provides enterprise software, online games, and Internet and media services. The company's Software segment offers enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management, supply chain management, order management systems, human resources and payroll management, and business intelligence products. Its products are designed to support and automate the processes of an organization to help achieve company-wide integration of business and technical information across multiple divisions and organizational boundaries, such as finance, manufacturing, logistics, human resources, marketing, sales, and customer service, by utilizing common databases and programs that share data real time across multiple business functions. The company's Global Services segment offers information technology services, eBusiness consulting, and Web development and outsourcing, as well as a marketing database and marketing support service principally in Australia and New Zealand. Its Games segment offers massive multiplayer online role playing games and massive multiplayer online games, which are online games that allow users to interact with one another in a virtual world by assuming ongoing roles with different features. The company's China.com segment encompasses a range of businesses, including Internet media business, which is focused on online entertainment, and Internet products and services that target users in China via its portal network; and a Singapore-based travel trade publisher and organizer serving the travel and tourism industry in the Asia Pacific region. It operates in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company, formerly known as chinadotcom corporation, was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Must Read story of 2008: How someone turned 1.7 million in 290 millions in 7 days

Bringing Down Bear Began as $1.7 Million of Options (Update2)
By Gary Matsumoto -- For full story on this, visit Bloomberg.com

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- On March 11, the day the Federal Reserve attempted to shore up confidence in the credit markets with a $200 billion lending program that for the first time monetized Wall Street's devalued collateral, somebody else decided Bear Stearns Cos. was going to collapse.
In a gambit with such low odds of success that traders question its legitimacy, someone wagered $1.7 million that Bear Stearns shares would suffer an unprecedented decline within days. Options specialists are convinced that the buyer, or buyers, made a concerted effort to drive the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm out of business and, in the process, reap a profit of more than $270 million.
Whoever placed the bet used so-called put options that gave purchasers the right to sell 5.7 million Bear Stearns shares for $30 each and 165,000 shares for $25 apiece just nine days later, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That was less than half the $62.97 closing price in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on March 11. The buyers were confident the stock would crash.
``Even if I were the most bearish man on Earth, I can't imagine buying puts 50 percent below the price with just over a week to expiration,'' said Thomas Haugh, general partner of Chicago-based options trading firm PTI Securities & Futures LP. ``It's not even on the page of rational behavior, unless you know something.''

For full story on this, visit Bloomberg.com

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Sirius XM sattelite radio (NASDAQ: SIRI): Is it reversing its trend today?

Sirius and XM merged today and the new combined companies' stock opened 15% lower. Seems like this was the climax of the trend as the stock has been trading higher than the Open price since morning. If it closes above Open price today, it is positive for the stock. If the stock somehow manages to close above yesterday's Close, this is definately a strong Reverse signal.

Investment or trading in the stock needs to be with a stoploss at $1.48.

Profile of the company:
Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. provides satellite radio services in the United States. It offers commercial-free music channels that provide a selection of music genres, such as rock, pop, hip-hop, country, dance, jazz, Latin, and classical; and channels of sports, news, talk, entertainment, traffic, weather, and data content. As of March 31, 2008, the company offered a programming lineup of 69 channels of commercial-free music; 54 channels of sports, news, talk, and entertainment; and 11 channels of traffic and weather, as well as informational data services. It served approximately 8,644,319 subscribers. In addition, the company sells radios and accessories for use in cars, trucks, homes, offices, boats, or other locations primarily through automakers, consumer electronics retailers, and mobile audio dealers, as well as through its Web site. Further, it provides SIRIUS Internet Radio, an Internet-only version of its service. The company, formerly known as CD Radio, Inc., was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Reversal in stock market at last? Possible time to buy stocks

As per PROFIT FROM PRICES theory, today there are nice reversal buy signals:
* The recent sentiment is very bad.
* Today market and most stock opened with a big down gap and many of them are trading in positive territory right now.
* Volumes today (and over last few days) are distinctively higher.

Here is a chart of Dow Jones Ind average:


Financial stocks and airlines are showing strong U TURN buy signals today

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Please sign this petition to control speculation in oil

An Open letter to All Airline Customers:

Our country is facing a possible sharp economic downturn because of skyrocketing oil and fuel prices, but by pulling together, we can all do something to help now.

For airlines, ultra-expensive fuel means thousands of lost jobs and severe reductions in air service to both large and small communities. To the broader economy, oil prices mean slower activity and widespread economic pain. This pain can be alleviated, and that is why we are taking the extraordinary step of writing this joint letter to our customers. Since high oil prices are partly a response to normal market forces, the nation needs to focus on increased energy supplies and conservation. However, there is another side to this story because normal market forces are being dangerously amplified by poorly regulated market speculation.

Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight. Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper.

The nation needs to pull together to reform the oil markets and solve this growing problem.

We need your help. Get more information and contact Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com.

Friday, June 6, 2008

DUG- 2 nice reversals at higher bottoms

UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX):

2 nice REVERSE/ RESTART signals with high volume. Oil went up today by $10 and surprisingly DUG also closed higher!


Thursday, June 5, 2008

ABK - MBIA- Ambac stock Came as a potential turnaround stock on screens today

Looks like those hiflyers who are currently in trouble- I mean Bond Insurers, ABK-MBIA, are attractive new money or shorts are now covering. Whatever the story, if someone likes them, there is a REVERSE signal with High Volume on your side. Though they are dirt cheap, they may have risk most of us will not be able to see... so it is strongly advised to keep a stop loss.


MBIA- what a fall! However today at $6, this stock came on my REVERSE screen so will likely trade with a stoploss at today's low price. Today's volume is the key.



About MBIA
MBIA Inc. is a premier financial guarantor and a leading provider of fixed-income investment management services. The Company’s core business is credit enhancement of municipal bonds and structured financings. MBIA's innovative and cost-effective products and services meet the credit enhancement, financial and investment needs of its public and private sector clients, domestically and internationally. MBIA Inc.'s principal operating subsidiary, MBIA Insurance Corporation, has the following financial strength ratings: Triple-A with negative outlook from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services; Triple-A with negative outlook from Moody's Investors Service; and Triple-A with a negative outlook from Ratings and Investment Information, Inc. MBIA’s offices in New York, Denver, San Francisco, Paris, London, Madrid, Mexico City, Milan, Sydney and Tokyo, service the needs of clients with local solutions around the globe.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Amaranth 2: Likely to unfold in Oil Futures shortly

The disconnect between demand-supply and the price of Crude Oil future points to a possibility that we might see the history of Amaranth repeating. Amaranth bet too much on Natural gas futures which collapsed from a high of 15 plus dollars to a low of 4 dollars. IMO similar thing seems to be going on in Oil speculation. Would not be surprised to see some big bulls failing.
* Interestingly, the boom in Oil price is following Bush regime over the last 8, unfortunate years I guess, which is likely to come to an end within next 4/5 months. As the markets are forward looking, I believe Oil should peak ahead of November elections.
* It is weird that US is holding 150 plus days of crude oil, 700 million barrels, in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This SRP was created in cold war days when USSR was a threat; there is no such threat right now but I guess until Bush is in office, there will be no draw down from there :(
* Oil is scarce as an energy source for transportation but otherwise nuclear, solar, coal, natural gas in abundent quantity in the world for power plants and other energy needs. For transportation/vehicle use also, the actual demand of Gas/Petrol is going down compared to its supply and that is why there is a tremendous marging pressure for Refiners like Tesoro and WNR, Western Refineries.
In my opinion, Oil is in speculative phase; let us watch how far it goes.
***********************************
By 2004-2005, the firm had shifted much of its capital to energy trading. Amaranth’s energy desk was run by a Canadian trader named Brian Hunter who placed "spread trades" in the natural gas market. Hunter had made enormous profits for the company by placing bullish bets on natural gas prices in 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina had severely impacted natural gas and oil production and refining capacity. Hoping for a repeat performance, Amaranth wagered with 8:1 leverage that the price of the March '07 and March '08 futures contracts would increase relative to the price of the April '07 and April '08 contracts (i.e., they were "long" the March contracts and "short" the April contracts).
Unfortunately for Amaranth, they did not. The spread between the March and April 2007 contracts, for example, went from US$2.49 at the end of August 2006 to US$0.58 by the end of September 2006. The price decline was catastrophic for Amaranth, resulting in a loss of US$6.5 billion.[1]. Historically, the spread in future prices for the March and April contracts have not been easily predictable. The spread is dependent on meteorological and sociopolitical events whose uncertainty makes the placing of such large bets a precarious matter.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Tesoro Corp, Stock TSO. Is TSO and WNR a good buy?

Oil prices are too high and gas (petrol) prices are relatively low.. so Refinary stocks are going through tough market.
Today going through my screens, I found a FULL STOP singnal here so one can buy with a stoploss at previous day's low price



Tesoro Corporation
Downstream the company operates three oil refineries. Tesoro is the second largest independent refining and marketing company in the western United States ...
var mb1=ManyBox.register('1',5,'pL88r9vW_GsJ','','cd74',19,'Stock quote for TSO')

Same goes true for Western Refinery stock WNR





Motorola (Stock MOT) is resting on 200 day moving average

Have not studied much but saw MOT above 200 days moving average after a long time.
Looks like a good entry point with a tight stoploss just below 200 days moving average.

C Citibank (stock C)- Opportunity for traders

Citigroup, Citibank, C, is pulling back and resting on 200 days moving average.
For those who believe the worst is over for financial companies, this is an entry point with a tight stoploss.

Monday, March 31, 2008

TOL- Toll brothers- Builder stocks- is it showing bottoming out?

Was just looking at Toll Brothers stock- TOL. Shows a nice resistance line around 24$ with an appealing inverted 'Head and Shoulders' pattern.



Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in designing, building, marketing, and arranging finance for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It also involves in building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid-, and low-rise luxury homes. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers in 22 states. In addition, Toll Brothers engages in the land development, architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. Further, it develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs associated with planned communities. As of October 31, 2007, the company operated 368 communities containing approximately 27,900 home sites that it owned or controlled through options. It also owned or controlled through options approximately 31,400 home sites in 239 proposed communities. Toll Brothers was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania.

Friday, March 28, 2008

ESI- ITT Education Services

ESI- ITT Education Services- which was recently as high as $130 has recently dropped to 45dollars range
Today ESI, ITT Education sevice has demonstrated a strong trend reversal signal- REVERSE BUY- a profit from prices signal.

This stock is a nice buy in the 43 to 45 dollar range with stoploss at 41.89 dollars.

"Delta Airline" DAL- Delta Airlines stock having REVERSE signal today

Delta Airlines stock along with NWA and AMR has staged nice trend reversal today. They were doing down and then suddenly strong buying interest emerged which lifted their prices to close in positive territory. This was surprise move as most market indices were going down same time.
Delta Airlines a good buy at the current level of$8.5 with a stoploss at $7.89.

Monday, March 24, 2008

BVF -a Good buy at today's close. + STP, SOLF

BVF- A strong REVERSE signal. Should be traded as a trend reversal signal

SOrry don't have SnagIt to capture the chart.

Similarly STP and SOLF seems to be showing JUMP START signal.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

kohls- (Nasdaq: KSS) Stock symbol KSS


Kohls- KSS- has a nice U Turn signal plus. Shows like the stock is being accumulated around current $40 level.

Keep a stoploss at today's low price.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Yahoo (YHOO), Continental Airlines (CAL), United Airlines (UAUA)- strong reversal signals

I do not have SNAGIT right now so can not put charts easily but Yahoo (YHOO), Continental Airlines (CAL), United Airlines (UAUA) has strong REVERSE signals yesterday and today they all opened with gap giving us a JUMP START signal. Last 2 days' volume is also very strong for all 3 of them.
Can be traded with stoploss at yesterday's low prices.